Hubert Senters here.
In the last video, we were talking about going on long short or flat the bonds and how to deal with that on a daily in an hourly timeframe. In this video, we’re going to talk about. It’s Friday, right which is when I’m recording this video you’re going to be viewing this on Saturday. But as I can see a couple things as the bonds were going up, the ADX was rising. That’s a good thing.
As the bonds have been going down. The ADX of the range has been getting smaller which is a good thing if I still believe in the long side. Now, what we’re looking at here is today the Average True Range for the past two weeks just point nine four. Let’s just round that up to a full point. Let’s just give it the benefit of the doubt. So today, you can see it’s down 21/30 seconds so we go over there and that’s how much it’s down. But what’s its range.
Let’s go over and see what the range is on today. I’m going to be looking at the USM 19 and I can see it’s 146 30/30 seconds and 148 so 146 so it’s actually I’m physically counting. I’ll put the video on pause and I’m physically counting 34 or 35 ticks which is over a full point. Now, normally what I would want to do would be an eight tick reversal. But since we have we’re past on4 full point and eight tic reversal will not work so I would have to do a 16 tick reversal.
Now, would I do that on Friday? No. I wouldn’t do it on Friday because I could do a 16 tick reversal off the lows right here and just count up 16 ticks just go one, two, three, four, five, six, seven eight. There’s an eight tick reversal at six and then that’s eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve thirteen, fourteen sixteen. I would do a 16 tick reversal at 147 13/30 seconds.
And if I’ve got a fill on that there’s no way I would have enough time or enough cushion in order to hold that over the weekend so if I did do that trade I would definitely want to liquidate it before the market closes which is 5PM EST so at least by 4:55 PM EST and then wait until Sunday and then re-establish the short if I still thought the short had two, three or four more days left in it.
I’m going to be doing a special bond trading boot camp this Sunday at 6PM EST the first live one that I’m teaching in 2019. I usually teach this course one time sometimes twice a year live so the bond trading boot camp this Sunday at 6PM EST usually takes about two and a half hours so we’ll be there from 6PM EST to 9PM EST so we’ll still all be able to watch Game of Thrones so don’t worry and I will see you there.
I’m going to HYPERLINK you to a page where you can put in all your payment information in order to buy a ticket to that event.
Good luck. Hope it helps. And have a great weekend.