Hubert Senters here.
I’m going to be off this week so I’m recording you some evergreen content and it will be over different subjects so let’s get started. This video is about trading gaps on index futures first you’re going to compare which one you’re going to trade.
If you look at let me get to a scan page here really quick. From looking at the nasdaq it’s obviously an upmode. If I look at the Dow it’s in a more of sideways mode.
If I look at the S&P it’s more in upmode. I would pick either the Nasdaq or the S&P. Pretty simple situation. In this situation let’s go to S&P because I’ve got a lot more back testing on that.
So I know that mainly all the indexes are up. S&P, Nasdaq and YM are the main three trade. Russell looks pretty much the YM right now. All four of them are sideways to slightly higher.
If I come in today and I go ok this is today’s action then I know I’m getting a gap up situation on this Index which is the Dow. Then what I do is I go ok. If I have a gap up situation on this chart. These are the stats that I pay attention to.
Half a gap fill is going to fill 82 percent of the time. Half a gap fill equals 82 percent. And then a full gap fill is going to happen 60 percent of the time. Now, since I have a gap up situation the likely of it feeling is still likely but it’s going to be less because if I’m in an upmode and it gap up open it tends to increase to the high side.
But it could come down here to a half a gap fill and then cruise higher. If I was in the other situation where I’ve got an uptrending market in this example so let’s say I’ve got an uptrending market. And then I get a gap down I’ve got better chance of it going half a gap fill, a full gap fill because the overall trend of the market is up.
Just keep that at the back of your head when you are trading index futures or gaps. The overall trend is important. If you’re going with the trend you had a better opportunity of this saying a gap and go situation where it will gap up here and either trade sideways or continue up.
It could always pullback to half a gap fill or it could pullback to a full gap fill. Just know your percentages and which way you’re gaping so you know what to kind of play for and anticipate.
Mark Helweg is doing a special webinar on ”Finding Explosive Trades with the SVS Strategy…How To Find Trades Like a Sniper!” It’s going to be Tuesday, August 4th at 8PM EST. Read the bullet points here. Register for the webinar and show up and he’ll teach you about the strategy.
Good luck. Hope it helps. See you on the next video.
Hubert.
