Hubert Senters here.
Got a question from a viewer.
First of all, thank you for the work you do. I appreciate the free videos and the opportunity to join the member team for the trial. I did appreciate the welcome.
On I believe it was the Tuesday members video, Hubert did a calculation of how many days he thought it would take a for a stock to reach its target.
Stock was MR something with a price of $1200 something going to $1700. He said it would be about 2 weeks to reach this target. He did a calculation on using the ATR, subtracting the current from the target then he did some division and came up with a time frame.
I could not hear what he divided the difference with and so I could not figure out the formula. I would appreciate knowing what the formula is for approximating the number of days it will take to reach a target.
I trade options. Thank you again for all you do.
Best,
Larry.
So let’s take another example and I’ll walk you guys through it so it’s per say I don’t have a dead set formula although you could make it into probably one for sure.
I also based it up on the markets doing but here’s how you do this type of stuff. First, I have to figure out what the target is going to be. And then I got to figure out how long it’s going to take it to get there.
Now, heads up, I don’t have a crystal ball so I am doing what we call a shwag in a long range shooting. A shwag is a name for scientific wild ass guess. That’s what shwag means.
It’s not just a total shot in the dark. You’ve got the information that you can pile and pull the trigger and hopefully you get close.
Let’s take a look at this and let’s say that we were interested in being long CPSH where I think this thing could double over the next 12 months but let’s go with this.
I’m going to go from this low to that high to that low. And then I’m going to say I’m going to use my target of $42.15. Now, what I’m going to do is right click on the chart.
And I’m going to go insert analysis technique and I’m going to add right click insert analysis technique. There you go. I’m going to add the Average True Range and then hit ok.
Now, down here it’s telling me the Average True Range for a 14 day look back period is $3.82 so to make the math easy I’m going to round.
So what we’re looking at is the target is $42. I’m just going to round that off. It’s actually $42.15 but I’m going to do round numbers all I can.
And then I know the Average True Range is $3.82. I’m going to round up to $4. So I’m going to do is I’m going to take $42 and I’m going to divide that by $4. And let me go grab my calculator so.
If everything is equal it would be 10.5 days. And then I look at what it’s done and said ok up sideways, up sideways up. It’s probably going to take mor than 10 days to get there.
It might not. It could go there Tuesday morning for all I know but based upon what it’s done in the past 14 days it should take 10 days to get there.
There’s no way it’s going to go vertical like that. And that’s a pretty good range. So what I’ll do is I’ll add another. I’ll divide up the 10 and cut it in half. And then add that to the target. It should take about 15 days.
So about 15 days it would probably hit $42. That would be my best shwag estimate of how long it will take CPSH to hit $42.
Now, there are several different ways you could do that. All you’re trying to do is number one is figure out a target. Figure out what its average trading a day.
Like if you know Google’s been trading 40 points a day. It’s giving you the high and the low swing but it’s not always going to do that so that’s why you always want to you know do worst case scenario versus best case scenario.
So if you’re really on the conservative side you could double that. You could say it’s going to take 20 days. But I usually take this amount divide that by 2 and then add it on top of there.
Or you could say I’m going to double that 10 days times two 20 days to get there and that’s a way to kind of back into that formula. Larry, I hope that helps you out.
I’m going to be doing a FREE webinar tomorrow on My Secret Weapon for Finding Better Trades. New trends and well established trends in both the directions up and down.
If you’re not using this free tool I think you’re really missing out. This in my opinion can cut three to five years off your learning curve on how to put the potential profitable trade so I’ll meet you tomorrow in live webinar Saturday at 11AM EST.
Good luck. Hope it helps. I will send you to the registration page.
Hubert.
