Hubert Senters.
Let’s take a look the FOMC 123 trade. Let me grab my ‘’handy dandy’’ pen here so I can draw on the screen. So this is going to be FOMC 123 trade. So it’s going to happen today at 2, that’s when the FOMC is going to decide if they’re going to raise rates decreased rates or keep them the same regardless there’s usually a gyration, a little wiggle that you can usually take advantage of.
So here’s how I do it and hopefully it will help you out going forward. So we’re going to pretend that the O is the announcement and the zero’s the announcement.
And we’re going to have A trade and we’re going to have a B trade. This is going to be the long side. This is going to be the short side over here, short side. It’s also going to have an A and also a B trade. And there’s going to be — the announcement is going to be the zero line.
So what you’re looking for and you don’t really care what they’re doing. So don’t freak out like if the A raise rates or they lower rates or that they don’t do anything, you don’t really care.
What you’re looking for is you’re looking for the initial reaction of what’s going to be going on here. So I am going to change color to red. So if the initial reaction of the market — and I usually use a 2-minute chart on the YM which is the Dow many.
You can do the S&P, you can do the Nasdaq, you can do the Russell but we’re looking at index futures when we do this. So if the initial reaction, if the initial move was down and then it went up and then it continued down then what we want to do is we’re going say move, 1 was down, move 2 was up, and then move 3 was down so 1, 2, 2, 3, 1,2, 3. That’s what we thought the FOMC went 1,2,2,3.
So what we’re going to do is we’re going to attempt. Your goal is to short it at the beginning of move 3, pretty simple right? Now, what’s the difference between A trade and B trade? It’s pretty simple.
We’re going to still have an initial breakdown. It’s going to retrace and then continue the break to the downside. Now, the only difference between pattern A and pattern B is the retrace from point 1 to point 2 to point 3, so the move from 2 to 3 is going to take out move 1, so I’m going to put a little dash line right here.
You see you have the peak of 3 is higher than 1. See it here where the peak of 3 was lower than 1, that’s the only difference. Your job is still to short at the beginning of move 3. That’s the short side. Hold on, this is the SHORT and this is the long side, LONG, so just my explanation was reversed there for that. This is the short, this is going to be long.
Now, let’s do the long side. The long side is going to be exact opposite so it’s going up, down and increase, so it’s going to be 1,2,3, there you go, you’re going to get long at the beginning of move 3. Same thing for pattern B on the long side. It’s going to be up retrace and then continuation 1, 2, 3.
So, you’re going to get long right there at the beginning of move 3. Does that make sense? I just messed up the explanation between long and short. I’ve been so used to shorting stuff lately. Lately, that I’ve just gotten on my brain a lot.
Now, let’s dig into a chart and walk through this. We’ve got a chart here. I am going to bring it in. And it’s just a 2-minute chart of the Dow. Now, this is not FOMC, this is just a real time chart of the Dow trading. And I’m going to try to locate something that looks like the pattern that we would do. So let’s go 1, 2, 3, that’s not bad.
So I’m just trying to teach it a little bit more on a live setting here. So let’s pretend that the initial reaction, let’s say the FOMC released right here. Well, I would count that on this 2-minute chart. I would go like this, I’d go up is 1 down is 2 and then there’s 3. And I would try to get long right here in that area. Let me change my color back to white. There you go. So that would be a long setting.
This would also be 1 up, down, up. So I’d try to get long right there. Now, if we do it to the downside it would be like this. Let’s say that the FOMC announcement was right here, down, up, down.
I would try my best to short it right there. So that’s how you do it. It’s really simple, keep it easy, don’t make it complicated if you make complicated you’re probably going to lose money. That is the FOMC 123 trade.
Good luck. Hope it helps. And I’ll see you on the next video.
Hubert.
