TRADING TIPS

Fear and Greed vs. Data Driven Decisions

Hubert Senters here. In yesterday’s video, we were talking about Open Range break out on index futures in particular Dow futures so next thing you need to be aware of is there are percentages that this thing will close. And it’s really important. I’ll just tell you what they are right here so you don’t have to do any hard math. I paid a firm to do the research on it and a half a gap fill on index futures, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell mainly The Dow and S&P. Will happen 82 percent of the time so if it starts heading in this direction so the gap from here to there will close 82 percent at the time so that’s good to know. So you can cover at least half or maybe even three quarters of your position. And then as it bounces you’re covered, right. And then the other one a full gap fill down here so in other words if it gapped open here you short it and you’re trying to hold off for a full gap fill. That fill percentage is about 67 percent of the time. Still not bad. Sometimes it gets high 72. So the best play is to short it when it gaps up and go for half of gap fill. Same thing in the opposite direction if it gaps down and then goes to fill that gap it’s going to feel a half of that gap 82 percent at the time. There’s also programs that I used to use in the past where I would put the stock up. And it would tell me like hey, Google or Amazon I would just throw it up and they would say hey based upon the size of the gap Amazon will probably fill this gap 22 percent of the time or it will fill this gap 90 percent at the time so useful information. Make sure that you are making data driven decisions and not emotional decisions because fear and greed will eat you alive. So Mark’s going to be doing a special webinar on how to make data driven decisions that’s going to happen Wednesday, October 17th at 8PM EST instead of just being led around like a dog on a leash by fear and greed. And you can make a data driven decisions based upon the amount of risk that you will potentially be making on those trades. That webinar is going to be happening Wednesday, October 17th at 8PM EST. Good luck. Hope it helps. And I’ll see you on the next video. Hubert.

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