Hubert Senters here.
Let’s take a look at the 2 year Treasury note which a lot of times it will lead. So it doesn’t always work because I always hate when people say ‘’well, if the index futures go up, the bonds go down.’’ That doesn’t always work. It’s a correlation and a cup on the cup all the time. You have to know when they’re working, when they’re in effect and when they’re not.
This is also one of those things where you can follow. It doesn’t always work but it is beneficial to pant it into a lot of times but not all of the time. So that’s the caveat. This works a lot but it doesn’t work all the time. The short term maturity rates will lead the longer term maturity rates. So here’s what I mean by that.
It’s just a fancy way of saying the smaller time frame notes which is the 2 year Treasury note. You can see massive trend to the downside. And then it jumped up and closed above the cloud the same way all the rest of the other longer term ones did because of the Italy scare. And you can see it was a big nice scandal two points and then we retraced here.
Now, it looks like we’re about to close below the cloud. No, we’re not there yet. So you take a look that’s the 2 year then just take a look at the 5. See the 5. It’s not as bad, right. And then you just take a look here at the 10 year. You can see they all look about the same because they all kind of trade in the same type of pattern.
Now, the 30 year, you see that? So they usually go 2, 5, 10, 30 but not always. But it is a good thing to look at when you’re looking at stuff going ‘’hey, okay, probably shortened this because I’m breaking a rule going above the cloud.’’ And if you’ve got a lot of the other ones getting weak and stuff you can do that. Another trick you can do is always try to stay on the right side of the hourly.
So if I’ve got a daily doing some weird stuff, if the hourly shifts to below the cloud then I know I’m okay. I’m probably going to be a little bit more safer shorting that stuff as opposed to just wanting to be long because it’s above the cloud for one, two, three, four bars you’re dependent on what you’re trying to do.
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Good luck. Hope it helps. And I’ll see you on the next video.
Hubert.