TRADING TIPS

Robert Wants to Know How to Fix This

Hubert Senters here. Got a question from Robert. Hi, Hubert, can you comment on the attached May 21 Wheat daily chart and a failed head and shoulders pattern? We’re taught to set a stop loss above the head. I didn’t teach you that but I do understand what you’re talking about. You’re talking about just good old-fashioned head and shoulders pattern. That’s usually how most people trade. Got you. We’re taught to set a stop-loss above the head but if it enters at about the neck line that’s about 60 cents which is about $3,000 of risk. Can that be minimized? Oh, definitely. It can be minimized. Are there other indicators which might have pointed to passing on this trade? So when you say a failed head and shoulders I am assuming we were talking about this. I just want to make sure. Let’s use red. And this is the head. This is the shoulder. This is the shoulder. This would be the neck line. That’s I’m assuming is you’re talking about. So, yes, sure there is. So what you can do is use a smaller timeframe. Or let’s take a look at it on Ichiomku. If you’re just trading patterns I probably recommend that you put Ichimoku on it. Because what it will do is it will take a lot of your pre-conceived notions on patterns away from yourself so let’s take a look at that. So here’s Ichimoku. So what I’m going to do here is there’s the head. There’s the left shoulder. Here’s the right shoulder. And there’s the failed neck line. So is this above or below the cloud? For me, it’s always been above the cloud since mid December so I wouldn’t short the thing. And then also I would say you might want to potentially stay away from it because you see down here on the ADX this will also keep you out of trouble. Ideally, what you want to do is only trade something when it’s in a trending environment. And as you can see when Wheat. When you see this read this means it’s not in a trending environment. It has been in a trending environment from here to there according to the yellow. And now, it’s also back to non-trending. Now, this thing is little laggy because it’s going on the daily chart and it’s a slower timeframe. I kind of like it being a little laggy because that makes a better decision. But for me I personally wouldn’t short that thing if you’re thinking about shorting the neck line down here if I’m reading you correctly. And heads up, Robert, I’m not the easiest guy in the world to reading this because I’m dyslexic but hopefully I understand what you’re talking about. What you can do here on the daily chart then you can change this bad boy to a 60-minute chart. And you can decrease your risk there by getting long on this and using a tight stop or even a 10-minute. And the same is going to go in effect for the short side too. If it was to the down side I would use Ichimoku on a daily an hourly or a 10-minute. Hope that helps you out Robert. Hope I didn’t confuse you. Good luck. Hope it helps. See you on the next video.

1 Comment

  1. Robert

    The neckline looks like about 629, which would be a typical entry, or just below. Many people can’t wait for neckline to be broken, and may enter a few cents earlier. Either way, those entries would not have made any money. This is definitely a failed head and shoulders pattern. Someone once told me that the best, strongest signal is a failed pattern. Of course, nobody mentions this in any books I’ve read on chart patterns.
    In hindsight, the best option would have been to wait for a significant break below the neckline, maybe 620-625., Maybe that is moral, don’t be impatient.

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